February 2021 – Dawgpoundsouth

News And Notes.

With the NFL league year starting on March 17, here are some quick notes.

J.J. Watt News. There is none. Despite what John Clayton said on a Pittsburg radio station that Watt had narrowed his choice to three teams, Titans, Packers and Bills, Watt still doesn’t have a favorite. Clayton reversed course a couple hours later saying he was giving an opinion, not sourced information. Yes, the Browns are still in the bidding for Mr. Watt’s services. There was also a report that a team offered Watt $15-$16 million. Also not true. No one has made Watt a formal offer yet. It does sound like Watt has narrowed his list to five or six teams. Don’t you just love twitter.

Current Browns Players Tweets. We’ve had Jarvis Landry tweeting inspirational messages, Rashard Higgins wanting to sign a contract to stay in Cleveland and David Njoku sort of saying goodbye. I don’t try and decode players tweets because it makes my head hurt. Landry is always tweeting uplifting messages. If he had tweeted “When one door closes, another door opens” during a game week, Browns fans would be pumped and waiting for Landry to have a big game. He tweets this prior to free agency and now Browns twitter is convinced he has been traded or cut. Stop. As for Higgins and Njoku, the Browns are going to let the market set the price for Higgins and Njoku still wants to be traded, no surprise.

Twitter Rumors. We are in Bulls**t season so here comes the barrage of “experts” throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks. Here’s an example from someone named Chad Forbes, ” #Eagles Not Shopping Derek Barnett but perspective around league is they’re certainly listening. Timing Wise, most teams will sort through FA Edge Rushers prior to considering trades at position. One exception is #Browns. Told there’s a dialogue there on Barnett.” I have no idea who Chad Forbes is and no clue if this is true. I do know that Andrew Berry has made only two trades for players since being hired as the Browns GM, FB Andy Janovich and S Ronnie Harrison. He doesn’t trade for players unless he can get great value. Starting FB for a seventh round pick and a starting safety for a fifth round pick. Value. Berry likes to save his draft picks for the draft, whether it be for players or movement during the draft.

Salary Cap News. As I mentioned in my last blog, the cap went from $175 million to $180 million. Now that the NFL has worked out a new TV deal, the league and the players union will meet this week to officially set the 2021 salary cap. Because the NFL is trying to recoup the revenue it lost in 2020, I don’t expect the cap to go any higher than $185 to $188 million. However, once the cap is set, I do expect a flurry of activity involving players and more players signing one year contracts. The 2022 cap could go $210 million, so players will cash in then.

Virtual Meetings With Draft Prospects. These lists of players the Browns are interviewing are accurate. Believe tweets like this, “http://clebrownsnetwork @clebrownsntwork · 11m The #Browns have/plan to conduct virtual meetings with the following NFL prospects: Northwestern CB Greg Newsome (projected late first, early second), Kentucky LB Jamin Davis (projected late first, second round), and SDSU CB Darren Hall (projected round 4-6).” This is an example of good twitter for Browns fans.

That’s all I got for now Browns fans. If it’s true that J.J. Watt has his list down to five or six teams, then he might start taking visits to team training sites. If this happens, everyone will know the teams he’s got on his list and twitter will explode. You think the Cleveland media will be camped out in Berea? Again, if the salary cap gets set this week, Boom, you’ll see a lot of activity. Everyone stay safe and Go Browns.

The Draft And Free Agency Part IV.

So far we’ve covered potential free agents for the Browns at the Edge/DE, Safety and Cornerback. Today I’m going to take a look at the Interior Defensive Line position. This position group has numerous “what ifs” involved. First, the Browns have to decide what they’re going to do with DT Sheldon Richardson. Richardson is currently slated to make $13.7 million in 2021, the last year of his contract. Knowing the Browns are probably going to lose DT Larry Ogunjobi to free agency, restructuring and extending Richardson would make sense. But that’s up to Richardson and his agent. He is on his fourth team and will turn 31 during the 2021 season. Convert cap salary into up front cash and add one or two years. This gives a player financial security and future security. The Browns did the same with OT Chris Hubbard last year when they restructured him.

The other big question is J.J. Watt. Reports today are Watt is interested in signing with the Browns, however remember he has other teams on his list. Most NFL fans look at Watt as an Edge because of his sack totals, but he’s really a DT in the 4-3 scheme. If the Browns were to sign Watt and they may not be the front runner, but they do have a shot, then the team could concentrate on other defensive positions. The one thing I’ve learned about the Browns front office, they’ll make their pitch to a free agent with several contract options. If said free agent decides to take their time to decide, the Browns move on quickly. They’ll be aggressive with Watt, but won’t spend too much time on it, moving on to other free agents. ESPN said a dozen teams are interested in Watt and listed four of those teams. Buffalo, Tennessee, Green Bay and Cleveland. Of those four, only the Browns have the cap space at this time to sign anyone. So which IDL free agents not named Watt could the Browns sign? Here’s a short list.

Leonard Williams, New York Giants. Williams has been one of the most consistent and valuable interior defenders since 2015. Very good run defender who on occasion can provide an interior pass rush. He did have a career high 13 sacks in 2020. According to Spotrac his market value is $11.2 million per year on a five year contract.

Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants. A great run defender when playing the nose tackle position. He can finish off plays and has one of the best run stop percentage in the league. An average pass rusher. The Giants won’t be able to keep both Williams and Tomlinson. According to Spotrac his market value is $9.5 million per year on a four year deal.

Sheldon Rankins, New Orleans. I keep going to the well with the Saints because they will digging out of a cap hole till the start of free agency. Rankins has had injury problems. His best season was 2018. A solid run defender and a below average pass rusher. According to Spotrac his market value is $11.3 million per year on a four year contract.

Others to watch. Deatrich Wise, New England, Shelby Harris, Denver and Kawann Short, Carolina. Short was just released this morning, is a two-time Pro Bowler and has a career PFF grade of 91.6 (2013-2020). Here’s todays mockery of a draft.

26. Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami.

58. Jay Tufele, IDL, USC.

89. Amari Rogers, WR, Clemson.

91. Elijah Molden, CB, Washington.

111. Tariq Thompson, S, San Diego State.

131. Walter Little, OT, Stanford.

170. John Bates, TE, Boise State.

211. Rachad Wildgoose, CB, Wisconson.

248. Paddy Fisher, LB, Northwestern.

Today’s news will be dominated by J.J. Watt. The rumors were started by a Mary Kay Cabot tweet. I haven’t seen it because she blocked me last off-season. I got really tired of the “trade OBJ” narrative. I want everyone to temper their expectations. Watt has his list down to five teams and the Browns are one of them. My guess on the other four are Tampa, Colts, Titans and Seahawks only because Watt wants to win a ring. The Colts have the most money, but have a QB problem, they don’t have one. Tampa has less money available than the Browns but have 30 of their own free agents they have to deal with. The Seahawks have a little cap space ( $4.9 million), so they’ll have to clean up some cap room. The Titans have Mike Vrabel and are currently $3 million over the cap. They have to create room to sign their own free agents. Just the fact a big name free agent wants to come to Cleveland will warm the hearts of long time Browns fans like me. Lets do this AB. Everyone stay safe and Go Browns.

The Draft & Free Agency Part III.

Before I go over the potential cornerbacks the Browns may try to sign in free agency a boom was heard throughout the NFL. The Texans released DE J.J. Watt. For the Texans it makes perfect sense. First they weren’t going to be able to trade Watt because of his $17.5 million contract. Only an idiot would do that and I don’t think the New York Jets and the Cincinnati Bengals were interested. This move instantly gets the Texans out of cap hell. So now Watt becomes a free agent who anyone can sign at any time. Reports say he is interested in a team in good cap shape, is a defensive scheme fit, has the right supporting personnel and a team that’s not rebuilding. Sounds like a team that is near and dear to all our hearts. It also doesn’t sound like the Pittsburg Steelers. Sorry Steeler fans, your favorite team is about to go through a major overhaul. Actually I’m not sorry.

At first it appears J.J. Watt isn’t the prototypical free agent GM Andrew Berry likes to sign. He’s 31 years old. However, last season Berry spent the entire season searching for pass rush help. He signed DE Joe Jackson prior to the season, then he attempted to sign DE Jadeveon Clowney to big money. Berry then tried to trade for DE Yannick Ngakoue and attempted to claim DE Takkarist McKinley off waivers twice. And prior to DE Olivier Vernon’s Achilles injury in the wildcard game, the Browns were seriously thinking of resigning him. Sounds like a man who wants to do whatever he can to help DE Myles Garrett. So will the Browns make a push to sign Watt? Based on the information just listed and after considerable thought and reasoning, hell yes. Remember the Browns want to restructure a few contracts to clean up the cap for this season and the future. Signing Watt sends a clear message to the rest of the team that the front office is serious about winning now and in the future. What would it take to sign Watt? An incentive loaded two year contract worth about $12 to $13 million. On to the free agent cornerbacks.

Mike Hilton, Pittsburg. Primarily a slot corner, Hilton can cover in both man and zone. He’s very effective against the run and can blitz when asked. While he isn’t a sure tackler, 26 missed tackles in the last two years, he’s always one of the top corners in defensive stops. According to Spotrac, his market value is $7.8 million per year on a three year contract. Because the Steelers are $14 million over the cap and they still don’t know what to do with Ben Roethlisberger’s contract, he will hit the open market.

Brain Poole, New York Jets. Another slot corner, Poole has posted one of the highest Pro Football Focus rating the last two years while playing in the slot. Allowed one touchdown pass and a passer rating of under 70.0 over those two years. Incredibly consistent and undervalued. While the Jets have $67.9 million in cap space, Poole is the type of player they may let walk. He’s not splashy just consistent.

Others to watch. William Jackson, III, Cincinnati, Desmond King, II, Tennessee, Quinton Dunbar, Seattle and Ahkello Witherspoon, San Francisco. You’ll notice I highlighted the slot cornerback position. I expect last years slot CB Kevin Johnson to move on to free agency. I’m still of the belief the Browns will make a run at trading for Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. It makes too much sense. The Saints are try to dig themselves out off a $69 million cap hole and Lattimore carries no dead money. Taking his $10.2 million dollar salary is like throwing a deck chair off the Titanic, but the Saints need all they help they can get. Now on to my latest mockery of a draft.

26. Gregory Rousseau, Edge, MIami.

58. Greg Newsome, CB, Northwestern.

89. Osa Odighizuwa, IDL, UCLA.

91. Paris Ford, S Pittsburg.

111. Rodarious Williams, CB, Oklahoma State.

131. Dyami Brown, WR, North Carolina.

170. Pro Wells, TE, TCU.

211. Jake Curhan, IOL, California.

248. Grant Stuard, LB Houston.

Again I doubt GM Andrew Berry will use all his draft picks, but I think this one covers all the bases. Tell me what you think.

Free agency now starts to get wacky and weird with experts making predictions with no thought of how a salary cap works and kitchen table GM’s making ridiculous claims of pretend sources. Enter Browns twitter at your own risk. Everyone stay safe and Go Browns.

Draft & Free Agency Part II.

Last week I started the discussion of fixing the Browns defense through free agency and the draft. I highlighted the most important position group that needed an upgrade, DE/Edge. This week I’ll look at the safety position. Since last week’s blog, there has be news on the salary cap. Last week it was reported by Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network that the cap would be increasing from $175 million to $185 million. Over the weekend Adam Schefter of ESPN reported the cap would be between $180 and $181 million. So this means the Browns will have between $24 to$29 million in cap space. Remembering that GM Andrew Berry likes to sign players in their mid twenties coming off their first contract here is a list of safeties the Browns might be interested in signing.

Marcus Williams, New Orleans. William’s coverage grade by Pro Football Focus has been in the 90’s since he entered the league in 2017. He also has the highest rate of forced incompletions during that time period and is a very solid run defender. Due to the Saints cap situation, worst in the NFL, Williams will be available. Market value according to Spotrac is $9.4 million on a five year deal.

Marcus Maye, New York Jets. A very versatile safety. Since 2017 has played free safety, strong safety and some slot corner. When targeted, he is the best at breaking up passes. Can line up anywhere on the field. and is solid against the run. Finished the 2020 season with a PFF grade of 82.8, fourth best among safeties. Market value according to Spotrac is $8.3 million on a three year deal.

John Johnson, III, LA Rams. Had an injury plagued 2019. But when healthy he is an elite coverage safety. Came on strong in 2020. In three out his four seasons in the NFL, he has never been below a PFF coverage grade of 84.9. He finished 2020 with a PFF grade of 85.6, third highest for safeties. Market value according to Spotrac $8.3 million on a five year deal.

Others to watch. Xavier Woods, Dallas, Keanu Neal, Atlanta and Jaquiski Tartt. Just remember as the beginning of the league year on March 17th approaches, more players will become available as teams fight to get under the cap. As for the draft, here’s my second mock draft.

26. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB/S, Notre Dame.

58. Jay Tufele, IDL, USC.

89. Patrick Jones, Edge, Pittsburg.

91. Monty Rice, LB Georgia.

110. Davis Moore, IOL, Grambling.

130. Deommodore Lenoir, CB, Oregon.

168. Richard LeCounte, III, S, Georgia.

206. Shi Smith, WR, South Carolina.

250. Jovani Haskins, TE, West Virginia.

If GM Andrew Berry does use all the Browns draft picks, this draft covers a lot of bases. Owusu-Koramoah is listed as a LB, however he has the athletic ability to drop in coverage and be that “rover’ back that DC Joe Woods wants to use. Safety Grant Delpit was going to provide that role in 2020. I really like LB Monty Rice as a middle linebacker. He has great lateral movement, can fight through traffic and is a hitter. Tell me what you think, this is only one of many mocks I’m going to do till draft day.

Next week I’m going to look at the cornerback position and do yet another mock draft. If the 2020 season proved anything, you can never have enough quality cornerbacks and there will some available. Everyone stay safe. Go Browns and RIP Marty Schottenheimer, you brought the gleam back to the Browns.

Free Agency And The Draft.

It’s time to start forecasting, so lets start with free agency at the position the Browns have the most urgency to fill, defensive end/edge rusher. The Browns have to find someone to compliment DE Myles Garrett. If DE Olivier Vernon hadn’t gotten hurt, I fully expected the Browns to make a serious attempt to resign him. But coming off an Achilles injury at 31 years of age it’s not an option. I expect the Browns to sign an edge rusher in free agency and draft one as well. Let’s start with free agency.

As I mentioned last week, Cincinnati DE Carl Lawson is the type of player the Browns are looking to sign. He is 25 years old coming off his rookie contract. When he was drafted he looked like a fourth round steal. He had 59 pressures on 389 pass rush attempts his rookie year. However, he has never reached those benchmarks again. He’s more of a situational pass rusher and is a liability in the run game. So who else might the Browns go after?

Roman Okwara, DE, Detroit. After his first 1000 snaps as a pass rusher, he was below average. In 2020, specifically since week 12, he had the third best pass rushing grade according to Pro Football Focus. He finished 2020 with a PFF pass rush rating of 85.4. That was ninth best in the NFL. As a number two pass rusher he fits the bill perfectly. His market value for 2021 according to Spotrac.com is $10.1 million per year on a three year contract.

Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Baltimore. There were rumors that Browns GM Andrew Berry attempted to trade for Ngakoue last year before he was traded to the Ravens. While he is a good pass rusher, Ngakoue is defiantly a liability in the run game. When he lines up wide, since 2017, he’s had the eighth best pass rushing PFF grade at 89.1. If a team has a strong interior rush, he’s a great fit as a situational pass rusher. His market value for 2021 is $15.5 million on a four year contract.

Trey Hendrickson, DE, New Orleans. Made great strides in 2020 after three average years, recording 13.5 sacks. He had 4.5 sacks in 2019. In his first four years in the league, he is mid level in both pass rushing and run defending, but like Okwara, it appears he is ascending at the right time. His market value for 2021 is $10.3 million on a three year deal.

Others to watch: Solomon Thomas, San Francisco, Bud Dupree, Pittsburg and Hasson Reddick, Arizona.

Trades: The big question on Browns Twitter, would Andrew Berry make a trade for DE J.J. Watt? Berry did try and improve the pass rush last year by attempting to trade for Ngakoue and trying to sign DE Jadeveon Clowney, but would he trade for the 31 year old Watt? While Watt’s sack production has declined since he had 17 sacks in 2018, he still registered a 85.5 pressure rate last year. Trading Watt makes perfect sense for the Texans. They are around $16.4 million over the cap and by trading Watt, they would take his $17.5 million salary off their cap with no dead money ramifications. This trade would have to happen before the start of the league year.

My First Mock Draft: I don’t think Andrew Berry will use all nine picks and I don’t figure in trades in my mocks. Here are my nine picks.

26. Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami.

58. Tommy Togiai, IDL, Ohio State.

89. Keith Taylor, CB, Washington.

91. Monty Rice, LB Georgia.

110. Amari Rogers, WR, Clemson.

130. Brady Christenson, OT, BYU.

Noah Gary, TE, Duke.

Marco Wilson, CB, Florida.

Benton Nelson, S, Virginia.

Have at it and tell me what you think. This draft hits some key needs for the Browns. Next week I’ll look at the safety position in free agency and do another mock draft. Everyone stay safe and Go Browns.