Month: June 2024

I don’t wager on games, nor do I take part in fantasy football. Never had the desire. I am interested to see what the betting professionals think prior to training camp. Frist some NFL salary cap housekeeping. According to https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cleveland-browns the Browns have $13.7 million in cap space. I’m still of the belief that the Browns won’t restructure quarterback Deshaun Watson’s contract this year. They can get by without doing it until next year. As for wide receiver Amari Cooper, I still think they’ll get a deal done before training camp. They’ve already agreed on the money for a two-year deal, however the guaranteed money for next year is still the sticking point. He’s 30 years old and the team needs to be careful not to get stuck with an aging player in his second year. Hopefully the deal will be similar to the deal Mike Evans received from Tampa. His cap number for 2024 is $5.6 million and for 2025 it’s $22.3 million.

According to https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39706974/2024-nfl-betting-futures-super-bowl-59-afc-nfc-championship-odds the Browns Super Bowl odds are 35-1. On this list they would be ninth in the AFC. ESPN has the Dolphins (20-1), the Jets (25-1) and the Chargers (30-1) as six through eight. Sorry I’m not buying any of these teams. The Browns play both the Dolphins and the Chargers, so they could take care of those two in a tie breaker. As for the Jets, no fricking way they should be ahead of the Browns. Ahead of those teams are the Texans (18-), the Bengals (14-1), the Bills (13-1), the Ravens (+900) and the Chiefs (+650). Of these teams, after an entire off-season, let’s see how NFL defensive coordinators handle C.J. Stroud. The Bengals have to hope Joe Burrow is healthy, after all he suffered an injury that no other quarterback has ever suffered. I can’t put my finger on it, but that sound familiar. I’m not buying the Bills; their playoff window seems to be closing fast. As for Baltimore and Kansas City, the Browns play both. It’ll work itself out.

Early week one lines: Ravens @ Chiefs -3, Packers @ Eagles -2.5, Steelers @ Falcons -3, Cardinals @ Bills -7, Titans @ Bears -4.5, Patriots @ Bengals -8.5, Texans -1.5 @ Colts, Jaguars @ Dolphins -3.5, Panthers @ Saints -4.5, Vikings @ Giants -0.5, Raiders @ Chargers -3.5, Broncos @ Seahawks -4.5, Commanders @ Buccaneers -4, Cowboys @ Browns -1, Rams @ Lions -3.5 and Jets @ 49ers -5.5.

Finally it was announced today the dates training camp is open to the public in Berea. Sunday August 4, Tuesday August 6, Thursday August 8, Monday August 12, Tuesday August 20 and Wednesday August 21. These dates do not include practices in West Virginia or the scrimmages against the Vikings. Plan accordingly. If you’ve never been to training camp, go if you can, it’s great. Stay safe and Go Browns.

The Browns and their fans now head into the quiet period, six weeks before training camp starts in July. The main question for the team, will they get a new deal done with wide receiver Amari Cooper. The Browns and Cooper’s agents are talking, so I’m inclined to think they’ll get it done. If I had to wager a guess, it could be either a three-year deal or a two-year deal. If it’s a three-year contract, the Browns would most certainly reduce his 2024 cap number from $23.8 million (according to https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/cleveland-browns) to around $13.8 million. With incentives and cash, Cooper could increase his 2024 salary to $23 million. That’s still a great deal for a number one WR considering the current market. If it’s a two-year contract, then look at the deal Mike Evans received from Tampa, somewhere in the neighborhood of $20.5 million per year.

Watching the videos from minicamp on social media, I’m even more convinced the Browns will have six defensive ends on the final 53-man roster. I wrote an article about it about a month ago. Here’s a link, https://www.fansfirstsports.com/the-fanatical-elfz-network/browns-way-too-early-53-man-roster-post-draft-browns/. My six are Dalvin Tomlinson, Quinton Jefferson, Shelby Harris, Maurice Hurst, Siaki Ika, and Michael Hall. The team can place Jovon Briggs to the practice squad where I think the seven round pick would be safe from other teams. Add to this, defensive ends Za’Darius Smith and Alex Wright can play inside, and Jefferson and Hall can play outside. Some have predicted Ika would be cut, I’m not going to believe that until I see it. It’s way too early to give up on him. Besides, the Browns need a run-stopper to rotate in on early downs and he was a Jim Schwartz draft pick. All in all, I’m predicting the Browns will have eleven defensive linemen on their final 53-man roster.

If you’re wondering about the new kickoff format the league has implemented, here’s a link to an article I wrote explaining the new rules, https://www.fansfirstsports.com/nfl/get-ready-for-the-new-nfl-kicking-format-browns/. There’s a lot of stats in the article, but there’s one I missed, courteous of Baltimore kicker Justin Tucker. This new format was taken from the XFL and in 2023 XFL kickers were involved in 25% of the tackles on kickoff returns. Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins had one tackle on a return last year, one. Then he got hurt in the regular season game in Houston and was out for the season. No thanks. As I point out in the article, the Chiefs are experimenting with using a safety (Justin Reid) for kickoffs. If memory serves, safety D’Anthony Bell was pressed into service to kick off during the Houston game. Dust off those kicking shoes Mr. Bell. Stay safe and Go Browns.

Starting tomorrow, the last of the off-season programs begins, mandatory minicamp. After Thursday, the team won’t convene again until they head to West Virginia. I expect there to be 100% participation, but if someone is missing, we’ll find out Tuesday. They more than likely would be excused. I expect there will be holdouts at two of the other AFC North teams, Cincinnati and Pittsburg. In Cincinnati, both Trey Hendrickson and Tee Higgins will likely not be there and in Pittsburg Cam Heyward might be missing. All are seeking new contracts. It’s a good time to be a Browns fan.

I’m going to pay close attention to the videos of all three phases of the game, offense, defense and special teams. On offense I want to see if there’s more pre snap movement, how the quarterbacks, especially Deshaun Watson, are throwing to new WR Jerry Jeudy and how the tight ends and running backs are lining up. On defense, I’m curious to see where the defensive linemen line up and who’s running with the starters. I also want to see which linebackers run with the starters and how Devin Bush will be used. With special teams, because of the new kickoff rules, I want to see if the team will be using a designated kicker for kickoffs. In Kansas City, the Chiefs are using a safety to make kickoffs. Might not be a bad idea for the Browns to do the same. No one wants to see Dustin Hopkins get hurt again. The last videos I saw last week of kickoff practice, there were defensive ends, Isaiah McGuire and Alex Wright being used.

As for the coaches, I’m really interested in seeing where consultant Mike Vrabel helps out. So far, he’s been with the linebackers and special teams. We’ll get some idea how new offensive line coaches Andy Dickerson and Roy Istvan plan on using one the strengths of this team. Dickerson came highly recommended by previous offensive line coach Bill Callahan and Istvan has other 30 years of coaching experience. He was last with the Eagles who basically run the same offensive line calls as the Browns. I hope new running backs coach Duce Staley or new defensive line coach Jacques Cesarie are wearing microphones. Friery is an understatement.

All in all, I hope for no injuries and a quiet period between Thursday and the start of training camp. We’re 90 days away from week one. Stay safe and Go Browns.

The general consensus among Browns fans, Cleveland’s defense was the best in the league in 2023. In some categories, it was. Those who disagree with this ranking will point out the loss to the Texans in the playoff game as an example that it wasn’t. There are a few notable exceptions to this thinking. Yes, the defense was burned in the first half, but the starting safeties for the Browns were D’Anthony Bell and Ronnie Hickman. Even though the Browns couldn’t stop the Texans, at halftime it was still a ten-point game. Houston got the ball first in the second half and the defense held. The Browns were driving with their first second half possession and then QB Joe Flacco started to throw pick sixes. Two in fifteen seconds. Game over.

During OTA’s, defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz took full responsibility for the wildcard game, saying they made serious mistakes. However, they adjusted at halftime and if not for the offensive mistakes that followed, you never know what could have happened. So, were they really that good? In some ways they were. The Browns defense was top five in forcing the other team to punt and number one in three-and-outs by the opposing team. They rarely let the opposing team into the red zone. Schwartz wants to build on these defensive traits and used a baseball analogy. A great pitcher can have a fantastic fastball, but he’ll need an out-pitch, i.e. curveball, slider or changeup to be a truly great pitcher. The out-pitch Schwartz is referring to is getting better at other areas.

The Browns were the worst redzone defense in the NFL. They allowed a staggering 71% scoring rate when the opponent got inside the twenty. They also were bottom five against the run. The most notable discrepancy is how the defense performed at home versus on the road. They allowed fourteen points at home and 29 points on the road. A lot of those road points allowed were because the Browns quarterbacks kept throwing touchdown passes to the other team. But still, their road performances were lacking to say the least. How do they fix this?

First of all, bringing back veteran players will help. They learned the system for the first-time last year and now have a better understanding of Schwartz’s plan. The defensive line as it’s currently constructed, has versability. Za’Darius Smith, Quinton Jefferson, Alex Wright and Michael Hall can all play both defensive end and defensive tackle. Both Jefferson and Hall have high pass rush win rates for tackles. Also, the linebackers have gotten faster with the additions of Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush. Hicks played for Schwartz in Philidelphia, so he already knows the defense. Because the defense has three very good press-coverage corners (Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson & Greg Newsome) Schwartz may mix in more zone coverages to confuse the opposing offense. The key again this year will be how well the safeties play. Schwartz loves to play three safeties and Juan Thornhill, Grant Delpit and Rodney McLeod will have to stay healthy. If the Browns are smart, and they are, I would have Adrian Phillips, Tashaun Gipson, Keanu Neal and Adrian Amos on speed dial. I’m looking forward to 2024 to see if the defense truly improves. Saty safe and GO Browns.