It’s time to start forecasting, so lets start with free agency at the position the Browns have the most urgency to fill, defensive end/edge rusher. The Browns have to find someone to compliment DE Myles Garrett. If DE Olivier Vernon hadn’t gotten hurt, I fully expected the Browns to make a serious attempt to resign him. But coming off an Achilles injury at 31 years of age it’s not an option. I expect the Browns to sign an edge rusher in free agency and draft one as well. Let’s start with free agency.
As I mentioned last week, Cincinnati DE Carl Lawson is the type of player the Browns are looking to sign. He is 25 years old coming off his rookie contract. When he was drafted he looked like a fourth round steal. He had 59 pressures on 389 pass rush attempts his rookie year. However, he has never reached those benchmarks again. He’s more of a situational pass rusher and is a liability in the run game. So who else might the Browns go after?
Roman Okwara, DE, Detroit. After his first 1000 snaps as a pass rusher, he was below average. In 2020, specifically since week 12, he had the third best pass rushing grade according to Pro Football Focus. He finished 2020 with a PFF pass rush rating of 85.4. That was ninth best in the NFL. As a number two pass rusher he fits the bill perfectly. His market value for 2021 according to Spotrac.com is $10.1 million per year on a three year contract.
Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Baltimore. There were rumors that Browns GM Andrew Berry attempted to trade for Ngakoue last year before he was traded to the Ravens. While he is a good pass rusher, Ngakoue is defiantly a liability in the run game. When he lines up wide, since 2017, he’s had the eighth best pass rushing PFF grade at 89.1. If a team has a strong interior rush, he’s a great fit as a situational pass rusher. His market value for 2021 is $15.5 million on a four year contract.
Trey Hendrickson, DE, New Orleans. Made great strides in 2020 after three average years, recording 13.5 sacks. He had 4.5 sacks in 2019. In his first four years in the league, he is mid level in both pass rushing and run defending, but like Okwara, it appears he is ascending at the right time. His market value for 2021 is $10.3 million on a three year deal.
Others to watch: Solomon Thomas, San Francisco, Bud Dupree, Pittsburg and Hasson Reddick, Arizona.
Trades: The big question on Browns Twitter, would Andrew Berry make a trade for DE J.J. Watt? Berry did try and improve the pass rush last year by attempting to trade for Ngakoue and trying to sign DE Jadeveon Clowney, but would he trade for the 31 year old Watt? While Watt’s sack production has declined since he had 17 sacks in 2018, he still registered a 85.5 pressure rate last year. Trading Watt makes perfect sense for the Texans. They are around $16.4 million over the cap and by trading Watt, they would take his $17.5 million salary off their cap with no dead money ramifications. This trade would have to happen before the start of the league year.
My First Mock Draft: I don’t think Andrew Berry will use all nine picks and I don’t figure in trades in my mocks. Here are my nine picks.
26. Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami.
58. Tommy Togiai, IDL, Ohio State.
89. Keith Taylor, CB, Washington.
91. Monty Rice, LB Georgia.
110. Amari Rogers, WR, Clemson.
130. Brady Christenson, OT, BYU.
Noah Gary, TE, Duke.
Marco Wilson, CB, Florida.
Benton Nelson, S, Virginia.
Have at it and tell me what you think. This draft hits some key needs for the Browns. Next week I’ll look at the safety position in free agency and do another mock draft. Everyone stay safe and Go Browns.