Expectations in sports can be a fans worst nightmare, just ask fans of the Cavaliers and the Guardians. The higher your expectations go the bigger the fall. After a 3-1 start the expectations for the Browns both locally and nationally are through the roof. Yes, it’s true, historically teams in the league who start 3-1 have a 75% of making the playoffs. It’s also true the Browns have the easiest schedule on paper than any team in the NFL. But are they really worthy of the high praise they’re receiving? It’s hard to say after four games.
I could argue if it weren’t for a few key plays in each of their wins, the Browns could be 0-4. Everyone talks about coaching and talent, but luck is also a factor in the league, just look at the Browns 2023 season. They played four quarterbacks, had no Nick Chubb and in one game played without a kicker and a punter the majority of the game. Teams can have magical seasons. In 2020 with a rookie head coach the Browns scored 408 points, had seven games of more than 30 points and three games of more than 40 points. This resulted in eleven wins and a playoff victory. That coach was run out of town because the narrative was, he couldn’t call plays.
The resurgence is being attributed to the quarterback who was the subject of the worst trade in NFL history. But is Deshaun Watson really playing great? No. Is he better than average? Yes. Unless you’re Tom Brady, an NFL quarterback’s success is due to his offensive line. Last Thursday versus the Steelers with a clean pocket, Watson was 22 of 27 for 246 yards, one touchdown and a QBR of 117.0. He completed 81.5% of his passes at 9.1 yards per attempt. When under pressure he was 4 of 8 for 32 yards, one interception and two sacks. In the first half the Browns were unstoppable if they weren’t stopping themselves with self-inflicted wounds. The previous two wins, Watson didn’t show up till the second half. My point is, it’s hard to judge the success of a team until they play a complete game offensively. Maybe Watson should have received more first team reps in the pre-season?
The good news is the defense is already playing at a playoff level. They have the highest-pressure rate in the league at 47.6%. Players are flying all over the field. If Denzel Ward is covering an opposing wide receiver, he’s going to have an unproductive day. This may change with the injuries to Mike Hall and Mason Graham, but if they can keep the pressure around 47% and play man coverage, no opposing QB is going to be productive, just ask Aaron Rogers.
Can the Browns keep this bandwagon rolling? It depends. Relying on three straight wins with late game heroics is not sustainable. The history of the league shows winning games this way is not repeatable. Even at 3-1, they have a negative point differential of fourteen points, have been outgained by their opponents, are even in turnover ratio and have committed more penalties than any other team in the league. Four games is hardly a complete sample size, but winning breeds confidence. Stacking wins like the 2023 Browns increases confidence and one blowout win can change the historical perspective. Right now, Watson has had his elite moments and like I said the defense is playing at a playoff level. If Watson can stay healthy and the offensive line can keep him upright, there’s a good chance the Browns can start playing complete games. Do that and the bandwagon can keep moving along. Stay safe and Go Browns.