While everyone drools over the performances of this year’s crop of offensive tackles at the combine, lets discuss the new CBA and how it effects the Browns in free agency. First of all, what got the most attention about the new CBA, was the 17 game season and the new playoff system. The owners probably wanted it that way. And while the players are against an extra game, they will receive a larger percent of the revenues and a extra game check. What didn’t get the attention, was how the new CBA affects the salary cap and the franchise and transition tags per team. On Monday March 2, the players will receive their ballots to vote on the new CBA. It should pass considering the league will be adding more players, increased minimum salaries and the fact that over 60% of the players are making below the league average in salary. The 2020 salary cap per team should be between 200 and 204 million if the CBA is approved. Now here’s the fun part, the 2021 salary cap will drastically increase to over 240 million and in three years could be at 300 million. That’s a lot of dead presidents.
Because of the wait for the passage of the CBA, the reps for free agent players are reluctant to discuss any future contracts. That’s why Browns fans haven’t heard any rumors about signing Joe Schobert or Rashard Higgins. If the CBA passes, the money for players in the future years, year two and beyond, will be greater. By the way, it appears Higgins really wants to play for the Browns next year, but it will depend on the money. Unfortunately for Higgins, this year’s wide receiver draft is deep, but more about that later. As for Schobert, Saturday night it was reported that the Browns were going to let him test free agency. Say it ain’t so Joe. It appears the Browns don’t want to pay Schobert the 10+ million his agent is asking for. Likely landing spots for Schobert are Denver or Green Bay. It seems the Browns are going to keep LB Christian Kirksey, but that could change as well. I really am having a hard time figuring this out, if the CBA passes the teams can overpay players this year, because in future years the contracts will look cheap as the cap grows. I’m still hearing the Browns will be active and aggressive in free agency, so we’ll see.
Last week I was excited with the prospect of the Browns signing Titans RT Jack Conklin. I figured it would take 15 to possibly 16 million. This week I find out the Jets are thinking about offering Conklin 18.5 to 19 million per year. That’s a classic example of over payment. Let’s stay with the Titans as an example of the franchise and transition tags. There has been a lot of talk here in Nashville of the Titans using both tags on Ryan Tannyhill and Conklin. One gets the franchise tag and the other gets the transition tag. This would allow the team to hold both players while they work out a deal with Derek Henry, because he’s their number one priority. The old CBA allows the use of both tags in a year. Sounds good right. Well the new CBA only allows the use of one tag per team. The teams can’t use both the franchise tag and the transition tag. So until the CBA passage is decided, teams are at a standstill to tag players.
So as you can see, the price for RT Jack Conklin is way too much, but I still think the Browns can sign a tackle in free agency. The second tier of tackles could include the Eagles Halapoulivaati Vaitai, the Vikings Rashod Hill, the Seahawks Germain Ifedi or Tampa’s Jerald Hawkins. I know these aren’t the biggest names, but they are all young and might be able to fit the new offensive system. Last off season, Buffalo’s offensive line was so bad they signed five second tier linemen and drafted a tackle in the second round. They found the right combo and that allowed the team to trade players for future assets. That’s how the Browns acquired G Wyatt Teller. So no big money spent on a free agent tackle. What are the Browns going to over spend on? Try the secondary. As I mentioned in last weeks blog the Browns have been in contact with the agents for both Denver’s Chris Harris and the Vikings Anthony Harris. Both remain interested, however the agents are waiting for the new CBA. I would over pay for both. Slot corner and free safety are important needs for the Browns.
The Combine. As I mentioned earlier, the deepest position in this draft is wide receiver. A team could draft a WR in the sixth round and still get a verified starter. The talent at this position is so deep. Rashard Higgins better not ask for too much money, he can be replaced by a player who is just as talented. Now lets look at the rookie tackles. Wow what a day at the combine on Friday. All of the big names, Wirfs, Thomas, Wills, Becton and Jones graded incredibly well. Not only did the big names do well, so did some lesser names. Boise State’s Ezra Cleveland, Fresno State’s Netane Muti, Kansas’s Hakeem Adeniji, USC’s Austin Jackson, TCU’s Lucas Niang and UConn’s Matthew Peart. For once the draft is playing into the Browns biggest need. They could take a tackle at pick 10 and still get another tackle in the third round. The Browns could trade down a little and still get a starting tackle. If a certain beast of a player (Simmons) somehow dropped to the tenth pick, the Browns could select that player and still get a starter at tackle in the second round. Not even the Browns could screw this one up right? Right? Okay, they could still screw it up, but the possibilities of them doing that are slim. Right?
Draft Buzz. It’s a forgone conclusion that Cincinnati will take Joe Burrow with the first pick. The Bengals have to negotiate a new stadium lease with the city, so they need a big name to sell tickets. After that it’s starting to get tricky. Washington is letting it be known they might want to take a quarterback at pick number two. Or they might want teams like Miami to think they like QB Tua Tagovailoa to force a trade up. If a QB is taken at two, then teams who are quarterback needy, like the Chargers or the Raiders or the Colts, might get a little antsy. After Tua, the next highest rated QB’s are Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Utah State’s Jordan Love. Love is starting to garner first round buzz because of his big arm. He’s not very accurate, but still has a strong passing arm. Think of Derick Anderson. At pick three, the Lions have to either make the right pick or get the the trade of a lifetime. Their coaching staff is on a short leash this year. At the fourth pick I think the Giants will take the first tackle off the board and I’m hearing they love Tristan Wirfs. His combine numbers will only solidify their feelings.
So, basically, if you’re a Browns fan, four quarterbacks taken in the top nine would be a dream situation. After the Giants, I really don’t see another team taking a tackle in the top nine. Maybe Arizona at eight, but they just signed their LT D.J. Humphries to a three year 45 million dollar contract. So if they take a tackle, it would be a right tackle, possibly Bama’s Jedrick Wills. That would leave the Browns with the choice of Becton, Thomas, Jones or Johnson. Nice choices. As for possible free agents, Atlanta announced they would not be signing TE Austin Hopper. He would make a great target for Mayfield, but I’m not sure the Browns are going to over spend on the TE position. At the cornerback position, besides Chris Harris, the Saints Eli Apple is available and at safety, besides Anthony Harris, there’s Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Tre Boston. I think the Browns will spend big for the secondary, but they still need defensive linemen so Pittsburgh’s Javon Hargrave and the Cowboys Maliek Collins are nice DL depth.
So in summary, if the CBA passes, you’re going to see big name players wait till next year to sign extensions. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes comes to mind. Why sign this year when there’ll be more cap money next year. The Browns are going to let LB Joe Schobert go in free agency. You have to wonder why two different front offices, John Dorsey and Andrew Berry, didn’t want to sign Schobert. Very curious. So far Browns fans are bashing Berry and DePodesta for the decision to let Schobert walk. I’m going to maintain my wait and see attitude. Browns fans are stilling waiting to see if Olivier Vernon and Chris Hubbard will be cut. If they were, that would add 20 million to the Browns cap money. The Browns will be active and aggressive, but not with big name splashy free agents. I personally think they’ll spend big money on the secondary, safety and cornerback. All this will lead to more twitter meltdowns by Browns fans. Man, the next two weeks are going to be fun. My advise would be to watch how the Browns spend their cap money, not on the individual players, but on the position groups. Remember the legal tampering period starts on March 16 and free agency starts on March 18. The illegal tampering period will begin in full swing when the CBA passes. Have fun and Go Browns.